Many players come across at the table a side bet called blackjack insurance. But given your money, is it truly a wise decision? This guide defines blackjack insurance, its features, and whether or not you should apply it for your next game.
What is Blackjack Insurance?
Blackjack insurance lets you place a side bet when the dealer’s upcard is an Ace. It’s a way to protect oneself from the possibility the dealer has blackjack.
Here’s how it works:
- You can bet up to half of your original wager on insurance.
- If the dealer has a blackjack, you win the insurance bet at 2:1 odds, meaning you double your insurance bet.
- If the dealer doesn’t have a blackjack, you lose your insurance bet, but continue with the rest of your hand.
The key question is whether you should ever take it. Let’s break it down.
How Blackjack Insurance Works
An insurance bet is effectively a 10-value card wager on the dealer’s hole card—the face-down card. Your insurance bet will pay out should the dealer have a blackjack, therefore offsetting your initial wager loss. You forfeit your insurance stake, though, should the dealer lack a blackjack.
For example:
- You bet $20 on your hand.
- The dealer’s upcard is an Ace.
- You place an insurance bet of $10.
- Should the dealer’s hole card be a 10, you forfeit your original $20 but gain the $10 insurance bet. You break even at the end.
- If the dealer doesn’t have a blackjack, you lose the $10 insurance bet and continue your hand.
The Odds of Winning the Insurance Bet
The dealer’s chances of blackjack are about thirty percent. In a typical deck (10s, Jacks, Queens, Kings), there are 16 cards worth 10 points; with one Ace showing, the likelihood of the hole card being among those 16 cards is roughly 30%.
However, despite these odds, the payout for winning the insurance bet is 2:1. This means you’re not getting fair odds on your bet, which is why insurance is generally considered a poor bet from a mathematical standpoint.
Should You Take Blackjack Insurance?
For most players, taking the insurance bet is not a good strategy. Here’s why:
Negative Expectation
In the long run, blackjack insurance is a losing bet. The payout of 2:1 does not align with the true odds of the dealer having a blackjack (around 30%). Statistically, you will lose more money by taking insurance than you would by simply playing your hand.
House Edge
The house edge on blackjack insurance is steep, typically around 7.4%. This is much higher than the house edge on a regular blackjack bet, which is usually around 0.5%. Therefore, by taking insurance, you’re adding an additional risk to your overall game.
Example:
- Suppose you have a $100 bankroll.
- You make a $10 insurance bet.
- The dealer has a blackjack 30% of the time, which means you’ll win $20 for every $10 bet.
- The other 70% of the time, you lose your $10.
In the long run, this creates a negative expected return. The $10 insurance bet isn’t worth the risk because you lose more money over time than you win.
When Might Blackjack Insurance Be Worth It?
Though blackjack insurance is generally a poor choice, there are rare situations where it could make sense:
1. Counting Cards
If you’re a card counter, your knowledge of the remaining deck can give you an edge. When the deck has a higher proportion of 10-value cards, the likelihood of the dealer having a blackjack increases. In this case, taking insurance might be profitable. But card counting requires significant skill and practice, and is not a strategy for the casual player.
2. Protecting a Large Bet
Some players may take insurance when they’ve made a large wager on their hand and want to protect that investment. This might feel like a safety net, but again, the long-term expected value is not in your favor.
3. Short-Term Gambling Strategy
If you’re feeling lucky or just want to experiment, you might try insurance for the fun of it. However, this is a high-risk, low-reward strategy and should not be relied on for consistent profits.
How to Avoid Losing Money with Blackjack Insurance
Steer clear of depending too much on insurance to raise your blackjack success possibilities. Rather, use these useful pointers:
- Stick to Basic Strategy: Emphasize simple blackjack techniques, which, depending on your hand and the dealer’s upcard, guide when to hit, stand, double down, or split. This approach lowers the house edge and raises your winning odds.
- Don’t Take Insurance: Simply put, don’t take insurance unless you’re an experienced card counter with a good understanding of deck composition.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Blackjack can be a volatile game, so it’s important to manage your money carefully. Set a budget for each session and stick to it. Never chase losses by placing larger bets, especially on insurance.
- Play Fewer Hands: It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of multiple hands, but playing fewer hands at a time reduces your exposure to risk and lowers your overall losses.
Key Takeaways
- Blackjack insurance is generally not worth it. Long term, the insurance bet is a losing bet as the chances of winning are less than the payout.
- The house edge on insurance is high, so taking it will cost you more over time.
- If you’re a card counter or have advanced knowledge of the deck, you might consider insurance in certain situations, but for the average player, it’s best to avoid it.
- To increase your chances of winning without depending on side bets like insurance, stick to simple strategy and control your bankroll carefully.
Black jack insurance is, all things considered, a side wager best avoided by most players. The likelihood is not in your favor, hence over time you will be draining your money. Emphasize the basics; you will have a better chance of walking away with a win.